Diversity was a decisive factor in sometimes surprising ways

We are continuing to help all Americans learn about our neighbors’ distinctive cultures and contributions

By JOE GRIMM
Founder of the MSU School of Journalism Bias Busters project

The 2024 election showed how campaigns are paying more attention to the influence religious and ethnic groups can have on the course of the country. This time, Republicans won all seven swing states and their 93 electoral votes, far exceeding the 270 needed to win the White House.

But here’s a startling fact emerging in the post-election analysis: If just 130,000 voters in three of these battleground states had changed sides their 44 electoral votes would have changed the outcome.

Where were diversity issues decisive in this election?

Analysis of this election will continue for years—but here are a few emerging snapshots that illustrate the crucial importance of diversity issues:

Michigan: With more Arabs, Muslims and Palestinians than any other state, this multicultural and multi-faith group coalition protested the Biden White House’s support and funding for Israel’s war in Gaza. Listen to Michigan reports that 100,000 people responded to a call to vote “uncommitted.” Others threw their votes toward the Green Party.

In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Michigan by 10,674 votes out of almost 4.8 million. Democrats countered in 2020 with more advertising and visits. Michigan flipped, giving Joe Biden a margin of 154,000 votes.

This time, in the face of active Republican outreach and the uncommitted vote campaign, Kamala Harris lost Michigan by 80,618 votes.

Michael Traugott, research professor at the University of Michigan’s Center for Political Studies, explained the results on The Conversation.  He wrote, “In 2020, the Biden-Harris team had won almost 69% of the vote in Dearborn. In 2024, Harris got just 36% – with Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, taking 18%.”

Pennsylvania: This state has more Anabaptists, primarily Mennonites and the Amish, than any other. However, because Anabaptists traditionally have concentrated more on the heavenly kingdom rather than earthly governance, turnout is lower than for other citizens. But this year, according to Anabaptist World, “Media outlets reported Amish people registered to vote in unprecedented numbers after state agriculture officials executed a search warrant … to investigate if sales of raw dairy products produced there caused E. coli illnesses in Michigan and New York. Regulations ban the sale of raw dairy in other states. The newsletter said Mennonites and the Amish found shared values with the GOP and government overreach.”

Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, Biden took it back in 2020. Trump won by 146,554 this year in a margin larger than his 2016 win.

Wisconsin: This swing state has 30,000 Hmong people, more than any states other than California and Minnesota. Few Hmong people lived in the United States until they were airlifted out of Southeast Asia, where they had fought in the CIA’s Secret War during the Vietnam War. Hmong people have a very high rate of citizenship. Their power at the polls is growing.

In July, before Harris replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, her husband, Douglas Emhoff, visited a Hmong festival in central Wisconsin.

According to the New York Post,  Emhoff told festival-goers: “This community right here could decide the election in this state, which could decide the entire election. You have the power right here.”

But campaigning hard at a cultural and social event honoring Hmong veterans may have backfired.

The Post reported that State Sen. Cory Tomczyk, working a Republican booth at the Wausau festival, said people were unhappy “with the chaos and campaign paraphernalia Emhoff brought to the event.”

Wisconsin helped put the GOP over the top and Tomczyk signaled the party will do more in the future. “It’s our fault we’ve been absent from this festival.” He said family values in the Hmong community “align with Republican values.”

The Michigan State University School of Journalism’s Bias Busters series has “100-question-and-answer guides” on Arab, Muslims and Hmong people. A guide about Anabaptists is almost out.

Whatever your perspective on the election is—the outcome makes it clear that all Americans will want to learn more about the distinctive cultures and contributions of our neighbors.